Investors' wealth grew by Rs 3.24 lakh crore on Thursday as the BSE Sensex jumped nearly 1 per cent after a two-day slide. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 490.97 points or 0.69 per cent to settle at 71,847.57. During the day, it rallied 598.19 points or 0.83 per cent to 71,954.79.
Extending losses for 7th session, Nifty fell below the 8,000 mark for the first time since Nov 25
Sensex ended at 26,272 up 125 points and Nifty ended at 7,831 up by 35 points.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
India's manufacturing sector activity strengthened in December, with manufacturers stepping up production and input buying amid efforts to rebuild their inventories following business closures earlier in the year, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 56.4 in December, a tick higher than November's reading of 56.3 and above the critical 50 threshold for the fifth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
Yes Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, crashing 8.36 per cent, followed by NTPC, M&M, Vedanta, Sun Pharma and TCS, which lost up to 4.81 per cent lower.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserve, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Maruti Suzuki, ITC, and Nestle were the lead gainers. On the other hand, L&T Wipro, IndusInd Bank and TCS and Tata Motors were the lead losers.
Corporate India's credit quality showed a sharp improvement in the second half of FY22, but high input prices and withdrawal of pandemic-related relief measures can pose pressures in the new year, rating agencies said on Friday. Crisil Ratings, which rates a large number of financial sector entities, reported an improvement in the credit ratio -- the number of upgrades to downgrade -- to 5.04 times in the second half of this financial year, from the 2.96 per cent in the first half of the fiscal. It attributed the improvement to a sustained rebound in demand, which lifted revenues of most sectors to pre-pandemic levels and proactive relief measures by the government that cushioned the pandemic blow.
The 50-share NSE Nifty stayed in the positive zone and retook the 9,900-mark to hit a high of 9,905.05 as buying paced up towards the fag end. It settled higher by 72.45 points, or 0.74 per cent, at 9,899.60.
'Sectors that had been left out till now will also start participating in the rally.'
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
However, IT stocks fell on weak growth forecast by Gartner
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
The price hikes during Covid were more because of supply chain and logistics disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war rather than firms increasing prices because of higher pricing power, a report by State Bank of India (SBI) said. "It is thus incorrect to infer that concentration power dictated pricing capacity of firms, thus resulting in unyielding core inflation," the report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, SBI, said. A recent research article by former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Viral Acharya had observed that persistence of core inflation in India is due to purchasing power of top-five corporate houses.
Sun Pharma was the biggest loser among Sensex components, plunging 3.94 per cent, followed by Tata Steel falling 3.12 per cent.
Tata Steel, SBI, L&T and Sun Pharma advanced 2-5% each.
Contrary to popular belief, there is more to the Nickel futures market than the precious metals like Gold and Silver
While analysts remains overweight on financials, property, discretionary, industrials and materials, they maintain a neutral stance on pharma, telecom and energy; and underweight on staples, utilities, and IT services.
Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
Coal production by Coal India (CIL) has grown slower than the captive mines, awarded over the last six years. During 2020-22, production from the captive mines jumped by 38.5 per cent while CIL saw a tepid growth of 3.4 per cent, according to government data. In terms of dispatch to the power sector, captive mines have raced ahead, witnessing a growth of 72 per cent compared to 15 per cent for CIL. For the current fiscal year, CIL's production is expected to be around 565 million tonnes.
A day ahead of the interim Budget, India slashed import duty on spare parts, like battery cover, lens and SIM socket, used in mobile phone manufacturing to 10 per cent, from 15 per cent. The duty cut is aimed at boosting local production and exports, as well as reducing prices in local markets. The finance ministry on January 30, notified the cut in duty on all goods for use in manufacture of cellular mobile phones to 10 per cent.
'Interim Budget has ignited the entrepreneurial spirit.'
Oil tanked to a 7-year low as OPEC decided to maintain production.
The rally in the equity markets in the second half of 2023 has led to a sharp surge in the cutoff for stocks to qualify as largecaps and midcaps. On the latest list put out by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), the smallest largecap stock now has a market capitalisation (m-cap) of Rs 67,000 crore, 35 per cent higher than in July 2023. In the case of midcaps, the cutoff has surged 26 per cent to Rs 22,000 crore.
New investment projects announced in the manufacturing sector declined in the three months ended June 2023. The value of new projects was lower than in the March quarter, as well as the year-ago period, shows data from project tracker the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The new project announcements worth around Rs 85,000 crore in the manufacturing segment in June were a 48 per cent decline from the Rs 1.6 trillion in March and a 66 per cent decline from the Rs 2.5 trillion seen in June 2022.
Corporate India reported high double-digit growth in net profit for the fourth consecutive quarter in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24), driven by margin gains from lower prices of raw material and energy.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
These core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production.
Mining magnate Anil Agarwal's conglomerate on Friday announced a major business shake-up, with flagship Vedanta Ltd approving a spin-off of its metals, power, aluminium and oil and gas businesses into separate listed entities and an overhaul of lucrative zinc unit planned as part of value creation and reducing debt load. Vedanta will issue one share of the five demerged businesses for every share held in the company, the firm said in a statement. The entire exercise, which would require shareholder and lender approval as well as a nod from the stock exchanges and courts, is expected to be completed in 12-15 months, its president for finance Ajay Agarwal said.
Sensex plunges 322.39 points to over 1-month closing low of 27,797.01; Nifty tumbles 97.55 points to 8,340.70.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
Among Sensex stocks, Wipro gained the most by 3.29 per cent. Ultratech Cement, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, NTPC, M&M, HDFC Bank, ITC, Kotak Bank and Axis Bank were among the winners. On the other hand, HCL Tech fell the most by 1.24 per cent. SBI, TCS, Infosys, IndusInd Bank and Tata Steel also dropped.
The last year has seen public sector undertakings (PSUs) outperforming the Nifty50, albeit by a small degree. But PSU valuations are still, on average, less than half of private sector peers at price-to-equity or PE 8.7x for the Nifty PSU Index versus 20.9x for the Nifty50. There are several reasons for lower valuation.
The Sensex ended higher by 245 points at 27,372 mark and the Nifty gained 66 points at 8,225.
JSW Steel (3.37 per cent), Tata Steel (3.33 per cent), Maruti (3.24 per cent), Power Grid (3.07 per cent), IndusInd Bank (2.95 per cent), Bajaj Finance (2.12 per cent) and Tech Mahindra (2.22 per cent) were among major gainers. On the other hand, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Nestle and L&T were the losers.
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